USA Drought Monitor Map, May 24, 2011. Image credit:USDA

Texas farmers could potentially be rescued from the grip of drought by hurricane-delivered precipitation. (NOAA’s 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 65% chance of an above normal season,…)

The longer the delay in climate policy action by national governments, the greater the likelihood of severe global financial shock when the needed actions are taken.

Cities of the world continue to grow rapidly – in great …Read the full story on TreeHugger

by Joseph McCabe, PE

More and more solar electric installations are using AC micro inverters
and DC to DC optimizer electrical balance of systems (BOS) components.
This BOS gear goes directly on the back sides of PV modules providing
higher valued electricity than output from the PV cells alone.

Two years ago I considered micro inverters as only necessary for lazy
designs or bad installation practices.  I’ve changed my attitude
towards these approaches after organizing two years of forums as the href="http://www.ases.org">American Solar Energy Society (ASES)
Solar Electric Division Chairperson. These forums brought together
experts who compared and contrasted AC micro inverters and DC to DC
optimizer BOS equipment.

PV panels previously could not be installed in partially shaded
locations because shade over a small area of the panel would
drastically reduce the power production of the entire PV system. Now,
shaded systems can benefit from AC micro inverters because each PV
module can operate independently, instead of at an aggregated system
level. Miss-matched PV modules were previously binned before
installations so that each string had similar performing modules. Now
the new electrical BOS gear eliminates problems with under, or over
performing modules.  More recently, I have learned about the cost
reduction and performance enhancing promises of these distributed
technologies.

These electrical BOS approaches have evolved substantially in the last
few years, and have come a long way since the first failed introduction
of micro AC inverters in the late 90′s.

Micro-BOS Approaches

Micro electrical BOS components promise easier designs, lower installed
costs, along with improving annual performance. Module level electrical
BOS solutions for PV have many different flavors. All strategies
promise to reduce the impact of individually miss-matched PV module
performance over time, possibly reducing wiring and installation labor
costs. Some products have communication strategies which help owners
understand real-time performance and maintenance opportunities.
Depending upon the project specifics, the levelized cost of energy
could be reduced 20% or more.

AC micro inverters attempt to optimize efficiency by converting the DC
voltage from PV modules into AC voltage that match the electrical
grid’s specifications. This enables AC wires to be used, along with
widely available AC electricians. Some DC to DC optimizers strategies
boost the DC voltage to an optimal level. Others boost and / or buck
(reduce) to maintain a specific DC voltage. There are parallel
connections that add amperage, and series connections that add
voltages. DC to DC optimizers raise the system voltage, lowering the
wiring costs, but still need a box to invert the higher DC voltage to
AC. Standard AC inverters are being optimized to work with DC to DC
equipment.

Project specifics will determine which micro approach, if any, would be
most appropriate. The trends are for residential systems to have AC
micro inverters, and large systems to have DC to DC optimization.

The Shoot-Off Forums

At last year’s ASES Shoot-Off Forum, we had AC micro inverter companies
in the same room with DC to DC optimizers comparing and contrasting
their gear. This year we separated the forums into one AC micro
inverter and one DC to DC optimizer group. Next year we will likely
further divide the forums into companies that are shipping and
companies that hope to ship.

This year’s forum included a presentation from the leading company
shipping these types of solutions, Enphase
Energy. Founded in 2006, they have shipped over 750,000 AC Micro
Inverter units, with 25,000 installations in North America in the last
30 months. They have a 13% market share for US residential
installations below 10 kW.  According to Enphase, micro inverters
will be 11% of all world wide inverters by 2014, which means we need to
keep a close eye on these market trends reshaping the PV industry.

For the first time in public, Ampt LLC
presented their large-scale PV systems approach with their DC to DC
optimizer technology. Ampt’s roots are intertwined with href="http://www.advanced-energy.com/">Advanced Energy Industries Inc.
( href="http://www.altenergystocks.com/comm/content/advanced-energy-industries/">stock
symbol
AEIS), which makes thin film deposition power conversion and
thermal instrumentation equipment as well as PV power inverters. On May
3, 2010, Advanced Energy (AE) acquired all of the outstanding common
stock of PV Powered providing AE with a full line of DC to AC Power
Inverters. The Co-founder and Chairman of AE is Douglas S. Schatz. He
is listed as an inventor on Ampt patents and is Chairman of href="http://www.abound.com/">Abound Solar (previously AVA Solar).
A nice central station thin film PV solution is evolving from this AE /
Abound Solar and Ampt relationship. In my option, thin films can
benefit from these micro technologies because of the soft shape of the
power curves and immaturity of thin film technologies in comparison to
crystalline PV.

At the forum, SolarBridge
Technologies announced volume production of their AC micro inverter
including strategic partnerships with PV module manufactures. They are
offering a 25-year warranty through their PV module panel integrators.
This makes for a central warranty location, as long as the PV module
companies stay in business. Matching module warranty with the micro
gear is a very good marketing strategy. Very long mean time between
failure (MTBF) numbers were presented by various companies, in the 400
to 500 year ranges. The high operating temperatures of this gear
exposed to the heat of the sun make these MTBF’s highly questionable.
The PV industry will surely become more savvy in estimating and
marketing MTBF in the future.  

Other unique strategies were presented at the forum. href="http://eiqenergy.com/">eIQ Energy
presented their parallel DC to DC optimizer including an integrated
wiring harness solution made by Shoals Technologies Group. href="http://www.tigoenergy.com/">Tigo Energy
explained how their DC to DC optimizer solution uses a combination of
real-time module and string-level information to compute the optimal
operating state of each PV module. There are many more micro approaches
and business models being promoted in today’s micro electrical BOS
space.

Future Competition

Be on the look out for two international leaders in traditional PV AC
inverters to introduce micro inverters; href="http://www.power-one.com/">Power-One ( href="http://www.altenergystocks.com/comm/content/powerone/">stock
symbol PWER) and SMA
Solar
Technology AG ( href="http://www.altenergystocks.com/comm/content/smasolar/">stock
symbol SMTGF.PK href="http://www.altenergystocks.com/comm/content/smasolar/">/S92.DE). 
In
September 2009, SMA purchased OK4U, one of the original micro AC
inverter technologies. Kaco New Energy Inc’s transformer-less inverter
was shown as a partner for the DC to DC strategies in the forum, and
like other existing inverter companies, will have good opportunities to
customize their grid interactive technologies with micro technologies.

Beware, these micro technologies are highly duplicate-able. This means
they will probably be championed by very intelligent electrical
engineers from developing nations. I heard a rumour from this year’s
Solarexpo conference in Verona that there was an Enphase knock-off from
China, everything the same, except the very important aspect of quality.

Copycat designs will be enabled by National Semiconductor’s May 2011
announcement of the availability of their integrated circuits (IC’s)
for use in the design of PV system micro inverters, power optimizers,
and charge controllers.  National Semiconductor ended its original
June of 2008 SolarMagic
business of selling complete micro components and calling it a
“per-panel electronics solution that maximizes power output of
multi-panel installations”. Now, they are backing up the supply chain
to supply IC’s  instead of BOS components. Texas Instruments has
been marketing PV power IC’s for a few years.  

The largest inverter companies, and the smallest companies enabled with
computer chips from National Semiconductor and Texas Instruments are
creating an exciting playing field for micro PV BOS solutions. All
these approaches continue to put pressure on lowering installed PV
system costs,  increasing the annual performance and increasing
the market for less than optimal installations.  We will be seeing
increased innovations from electronics integrated directly on the back
of DC PV modules. It is all very exciting; the innovations, and our
learning how they fit into the PV industry has just begun.

For more in formation on the American Solar Energy Society please visit
ases.org and plan on attending the href="http://www.nationalsolarconference.org/">annual conference
held in Denver May 13th 2012.

Joseph McCabe is a solar industry
expert with over 20 years in the business. He is an American Solar
Energy Society Fellow, a Professional Engineer, and is internationally
recognized as an expert in thin film PV, BIPV and Photovoltaic/Thermal
solar industry activities. McCabe has a Masters Degree in Nuclear and
Energy Engineering. Joe is a Contributing Editor to altenergystocks and
can be reached at energy [no space] ideas at gmail dotcom.

No Disclosures.

Renault has received orders for 100,000 of its Renault Fluence Z.E. electric car from Better Place for massive deployment in Israel, Denmark, and other countries. The Renault-Nissan Alliance is the clear leader in freeway speed electric car sales with Nissan delivering the LEAF, and both using common electric drive system and lithium battery components. These [...]

Tom Konrad CFA

Last
week, the announcement
that
Principal Solar, Inc. was now available for public trading
landed in my inbox.  It’s currently trading under the symbol
PSWWD.PK but will transition to PSWW.PK
on June 23rd.  I went ahead and used the latter in our Solar
Stocks list.

The press release was remarkable only for the lack of
hard facts about
the company, focusing instead on the bright future of the solar
industry. But experienced investors know that an industry can have a
bright future while the individual stocks tank.  A rising tide
need not lift all boats. a rising tide could, in fact, smash most of
the current boats against the rocks while new, more efficient
competitors set sail at high tide.  That certainly has been the
pattern in solar
manufacturing.

Despite the fluff in the press release, I thought the Principal Solar
strategy might be worth investigation.  They plan to concentrate
on “rapidly advancing… solar energy through a unique roll-up
strategy.”  Since Principal is planning on rolling up solar
developers and installers (as opposed to manufacturers) I thought that
this was at least interesting in that there are few, if any solid 
pure-play solar installation companies available to public stock
investors.

Other developers I’m aware of are Envision
Solar
International (EVSI.OB), which designs attractive
solar
for parking lots, but lacked financial muscle when I looked
at it a year ago, and California-based Premier
Power
Renewable Energy (PPRW.OB) and Real
Goods
Solar (RSOL) neither of which I have yet looked at deeply. 
Not totally unique, then, but one of just a few publicly traded options.

Although the California firms are better established, I decided to take
a deeper look at Principal.  The near complete lack of substance
in the press release perked my interest, if only to see if I could
unearth any information that might be useful in an investment decision.

I continued to find a lack of hard facts.  An inquiry to the
company’s PR firm confirmed that they have not released any financial
statements, but they plan to release financial information
mid-summer.  While reverse mergers like the one Principal
undertook are notorious for their lack of transparency, the lack of any
financial statements (even unaudited) takes opacity to a new
level.  I declined an interview with CEO and former telecoms
entrepreneur Micheal
Groton.  No doubt Groton is a great communicator and
visionary, but I’m more interested in numbers.  Without those
numbers, i.e. audited financial statements, I would not touch any
company with the proverbial ten foot pole. 

When the numbers do emerge, it might be worth another look, but
I’m not optimistic.  A scan of the management bios shows
a
lot of telecoms and IT experience but much less solar industry
experience.  One of the four bullets in their “Core strategy” is
“Establishing the Company as the market thought-leader by issuing
thoughtful and timely White Papers and impactful press releases to the
mainstream media.”  In other words, a key part of their core
strategy is public relations.  I much prefer dull companies that
are poor at communicating their story but good at making money.

As they say in the company’s home state of Texas, Principal Solar seems
to be “All hat and no cattle.”  Maybe that will change come
mid-summer and the promised financial information, but I’m not holding
my breath.

DISCLOSURE: No Positions.
DISCLAIMER: Past performance is
not a guarantee
or a reliable indicator of future results.  This article contains
the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to
change without notice.  This article has been distributed for
informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain
information contained herein should not be considered as investment
advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or
investment product.  Information contained herein has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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Photos credit Alfonso Herranz with permission from kawamura-ganjavian

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One of the most important yet overlooked points about the penetration of clean energy into the marketplace is that there’s pretty much only one thing that matters:  cost.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again:  people buy all sorts of things — clothes, cars, electronic gadgets — based on non-economic factors, but energy [...]

style="font-style: italic;">Dana Blankenhorn

There are a growing number of “solar bears” out there like Jim
Chanos, a professional short-seller who is convinced China is poised
for href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-chanos-short-china-fixed-asset-investment-2011-2"
>a 2008-style crash and who is also selling
href="http://www.rttnews.com/Content/BreakingNews.aspx?Node=B1&Id=1632775"
>short stocks like href="http://www.altenergystocks.com/comm/content/first-solar/">First
Solar (FSLR) and href="http://www.altenergystocks.com/comm/content/vestas-wind-systems/">Vestas
Wind (VWDRY.PK). (What does Chanos
like? Would you believe href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/263160-jim-chanos-16-favorite-long-stock-picks"
>Citibank?) (Picture from href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fozzie_Bear" >Wikipedia.)

Personally, I don’t know whether Chanos is right about those stocks
or not. href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=fslr&hl=en&ned=us&tab=ne"
>First Solar is a popular short because it’s the
best-performing U.S. solar play. Fly high and the assumption is you’ll
fall fast.

But two big mistakes are being made here:

1. People are confusing specific companies href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/26/3227776.htm?section=justin"
   >with the industry.  Costs
   per-watt in the renewable industry are continually going down. This
   makes picking a winner tough, but it is proof that there is serious
   upside to the sector as a whole. After all, what is happening with the
   price of fossil fuels? Most are up, way up. If your costs are declining
   and your opponents’ are rising, you’re winning.

2. A lot of analysts are focused only on the outlook href="http://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-news/seia-talks-solar-tech-diversification-052511/"
   >for grid-scale projects, and
   most projects aren’t very big. You don’t get big new plants without
   multi-year timelines and (often) subsidies. But small plants, even
   non-plants (like the cells on my sister’s house) can add up. And with
   costs declining, growth is certain.

Measurements like those of href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/diversification-is-key-to-growth-in-global-renewables-markets-122647078.html"
>Ernst & Young are especially misleading. href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/china-widens-lead-in-renewable-energy-ranking-by-ernst-young.html"
>“China widens lead over U.S.” reads the headline,
but in fact the outlet there is only marginally improved, and outside
the area of wind energy our outlook is actually stronger.

The outlook for wind and solar is further improved by things like href="http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2011/05/ges_big_bet_on_natural_gas.html"
>GE’s new mini-gas plants,
which can take up for intermittent power sources while storage
technologies develop. And for every company the stock pickers are
dissing, like First Solar, there’s always one they’re hot for, like
SunPower
(SPWRA), which has href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/05/26/one-hot-solar-stock-sunpowers-component-sales-could-triple-by/"
>just bought PowerLight Corp.

If you don’t confuse companies with an industry, and if you broaden
your outlook, you’re going to find a lot to like in renewables — a lot
worth training and hiring for.

DISCLOSURE: None.

Photo: Lip Kee under a Creative Commons license.

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